Nationals Take Odd, Expensive Risk on Haren - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Nationals Take Odd, Expensive Risk on Haren Stuck

Posted on December 4, 2012 at 01:35 PM.

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(Nashville, Tennessee)--Last season was the first of Dan Haren�s career that he failed to pitch over 200 innings. The 32 year old right hander is coming off of the worst season of his 10 year career. Haren dealt with back and hip issues for most of the season which limited him to just 176.2 innings over his 30 starts. He allowed a career high 9.7 hits per nine innings and a career worst 4.33 ERA. While his walk rate remained largely the same, his strikeout rate decreased for the fourth consecutive season to 19%. After the Angels declined his $15.5 million option, Haren was set free on the market.

The thought would be that Haren would take an incentive laden deal and attempt to re-establish his value for next winter. Evidently, an injury-plagued season is still worth $13 million because the Washington Nationals agreed to terms on a one year contract with Haren for $13 million. Factoring in the buyout that Haren received from the Angels, he will earn $16.5 million for the 2013 season, a one million dollar raise.

Haren will replace Edwin Jackson in the Nationals rotation and will slot into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation behind Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and possibly behind Ross Detwiler. The Nationals have moved quickly to address their needs as they traded for center fielder Denard Span last week and agreed to terms with Haren on the second day of the Winter meetings.

The signing is surprising given the general worry about Haren�s back and hip. Haren�s 2012 was worrisome on a number of levels. His fastball averaged just 88 MPH, down from the 90 MPH that he has averaged for the past three seasons. Perhaps the issue stems from his back or perhaps they represent a general decline from a pitcher entering his middle-30�s with a decade�s worth of 200+ inning seasons on his arm. His groundball rate also dropped to 39 percent, below his career average of 43%. The rise in fly balls and line drives and the decrease of velocity are red flags. The rise in home run rate is a product of all of this. The result is that Haren was only able to pitch into the seventh inning in just 10 of his 30 starts.

The red flags make the $13 million price tag seem quite high. For a team that is on the brink of being a World Series contender, it seems like too big of a risk. For any team, $13 million would be too big of a risk.

The Nationals are banking on the the fact that Haren was never a hard thrower. For his career, he has averaged between 90 and 91 MPH with his fastball. It is also a pitch that he hasn�t really featured, having thrown it just 48.2 percent of the time for his career. In 2011, he threw a fastball just 34 percent of his pitches. Instead, Haren features a cut fastball, curveball, and splitter. One of the more interesting aspects of Haren�s arsenal is that he deploys it differently each season. In some years, he throws more cutters, other years more split fingers. The Nationals will hope that he can be healthy enough to make his pitches. Velocity may not be Haren�s key, but he will have to be healthy enough to maintain his delivery.

They also hope a return to the National League and a move to the back of the rotation will help Haren rebound. He won�t have to face the American League lineups on a nightly basis and he isn�t one of the top three on the staff. And, they�ll hope that nine years will outweigh one year. For nine years, Dan Haren has been one of the most dependable pitchers in the game. Last year, he had back issues and still made 30 starts that were slightly better than league average in the American League. As long as his condition didn�t worsen, they hope he is still capable of at least repeating that. For a fourth or fifth starter, that is enough.

The Nationals hope for the upside of Dan Haren---the 200 inning, above average starter who never misses a start and who strikes out 200 batters per season. If he returns to any form of consistency, the Nationals upgraded their rotation from Edwin Jackson at a far cheaper rate than they would�ve had they signed Zach Greinke or traded for someone like James Shields. If Haren is more of the 2012 version, they have essentially replaced Edwin Jackson at a very high cost. If his condition worsens, they have made a big error. The Nationals won 98 games with Jackson in the rotation.

They risk $13 million, which is quite high. They don�t commit for longer than a year, which makes the risk much easier to take. But, given the risks, the Nationals pay far too big of a price. The Angels declined Haren�s option and they actually had his medicals and knew him for two seasons. And, they are in need of pitching. The Nationals could have, and probably should have, taken a safer, more inexpensive route. The free agent market has seen inflated contracts, but this one seems odd.

Of course, all of this is dependent upon Haren passing his physical. And, this won�t be one of those perfunctory physicals.